Art's Charts

December 2009

Art's Charts

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SPY stalls after 5-day surge

by Arthur Hill

After a five day surge from 110 to 113, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) took a breather on Tuesday with a small decline. SPY was trading in positive territory in the afternoon, but got hit with a late sell-off that pushed prices into negative territory... Read More 

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Evidence remains bullish

by Arthur Hill

As the market summary table shows, the bulk of the evidence is firmly bullish. In fact, the Nasdaq AD Line is the only negative out there right now and the table is almost all green. The weight of the evidence has favored the bulls since inception (September)... Read More 

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Tuesday video features...

by Arthur Hill

-Evidence remains bullish -Net New Highs expand in December -NYSE AD Line hits 52-week high -Nasdaq AD Volume Line hits 52-week high -McClellan Oscillators surge above 50 -Bullish Percent Indices move higher -Volatility indices move to new lows -Trend and momentum are bullish -Of... Read More 

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Not many sellers out there

by Arthur Hill

There is no change in SPY as the ETF edged higher on Monday. Trading remains thin, but there are still more buyers than sellers out there... Read More 

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Intermarket Update: dollar, gold, oil, bonds

by Arthur Hill

-Bonds breakdown as stocks hit new high -Dollar getting short-term overbought -Gold finds support near broken resistance -Oil recovers after early December drop -Bonds break support with sharp decline ***************************************************************** Dollar gettin... Read More 

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A 52-week high for SPY

by Arthur Hill

Stocks moved higher with a classic Santa Claus rally last week and the bulls remain in control. Techs and small-caps led the rally as QQQQ and IWM advanced around 5% in the last five trading days... Read More 

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Happy Holidays!

by Arthur Hill

There is no change in the short-term or medium-term picture. Updated charts are shown below. The next commentary will be on Monday, December 28th... Read More 

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Tuesday video features...

by Arthur Hill

-Six weeks and seven gaps -Homebuilders on the hot seat -Retail SPDR breaks triangle -Oil Service HOLDRs hits resistance -Charts of Interest BOOM, CERN, EBAY, EP, GE , GERN, HCBK, ISIL, LSI, QCOM, SVNT - Click here for the video pag... Read More 

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Charts of Interest

by Arthur Hill

boom, cern, ebay, ep, ge , gern, hcbk, isil, lsi, qcom, svn... Read More 

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OIH hits resistance

by Arthur Hill

After a rally the last two weeks, the Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) is bumping up against resistance from the October trendline and the late November highs. Also notice that this bounce retraced around 62% of the decline from mid November to early December... Read More 

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XRT breaks triangle resistance

by Arthur Hill

The Retail SPDR (XRT) is getting into the holiday spirit with a triangle breakout on Monday. The ETF has been lagging the broader market over the last two months. Notice that the S&P 500 is trading near a 52-week high, but XRT remains below its mid October high... Read More 

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Homebuilders in the spotlight

by Arthur Hill

Homebuilding stocks will be in the spotlight with two upcoming reports. Existing Home Sales will be reported on Tuesday (10 AM ET) and New Home Sales will be released on Wednesday at 10 AM ET)... Read More 

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Six weeks and seven gaps

by Arthur Hill

"6 Weeks and 7 Gaps" sounds like the title for a movie with Harrison Ford. SPY moved back to the top of its trading range with a gap up on Monday. Needless to say, there is no change in the medium-term trend (up). With yesterday's close at 111... Read More 

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Dollar and stocks change it up

by Arthur Hill

-Dollar surges and stocks hold their gains -Dollar Index hits first resistance zone -Gold hits trendline and retracement support -Oil nears resistance from broken support -Bonds tests very important support zone The relationship between the Dollar and stock is changing... Read More 

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SPY holds range support

by Arthur Hill

Despite a gap down and sharp decline on Thursday, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) firmed on Friday and remains in the middle of its 6-week trading range. This means there is no change in the medium-term trend (up)... Read More 

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Friday video features...

by Arthur Hill

-Bulk of evidence remains bullish -Small-caps outperforming large-caps -SPY and DIA hit retracement resistance -March-December uptrends holding -VIX hits support -Nasdaq AD Volume Line tests October high -NYSE AD Line hits new high -Net New Highs remain positive -Click here for t... Read More 

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Evidence remains bullish

by Arthur Hill

The bulk of the evidence remains bullish for the stock market. In fact, I have even seen some strengthening in the bullish case over the past week. The Nasdaq AD Volume Line is challenging its Sep-Oct highs so I upgraded the AD Volume Lines from bearish to neutral... Read More 

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Mar-Dec uptrend in place

by Arthur Hill

The four major index ETFs remain in clear uptrends on the weekly charts, but all are near potential resistance levels. These charts are grouped in two pairs. First, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Dow Diamonds (DIA) show similar characteristics... Read More 

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Volatility indices find support

by Arthur Hill

While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq bump resistance from their October-November highs, the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) and Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) are finding support near their October-November lows... Read More 

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Breadth remains mixed overall

by Arthur Hill

On the bullish side, Net New Highs remain positive for both the Nasdaq and the NYSE. There were fewer Net New Highs in November-December than in October... Read More 

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SPY gaps down from resistance

by Arthur Hill

SPY gapped down from trading range resistance and is currently near the mid point of the 5-week high-low range. This area could offer short-term support. The range low is 108.12, the range high is 112.38 and the mid point is 110.25. SPY closed at 110.18 on Thursday... Read More 

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SPY stalls near resistance

by Arthur Hill

As one might expect, there is no change in the short-term or medium-term trend. SPY gapped up five days ago and formed five indecisive candlesticks. There has been little movement from open to close. Post-open price action has been choppy as the ETF trades near its Nov-Dec highs... Read More 

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Waiting on the Fed

by Arthur Hill

There is no change in the short-term or medium-term trends for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The Fed meeting ends today with an announcement expected at 2:15 PM ET. We can expect some volatile swings just before and after the announcement with volatility subsiding around 3PM... Read More 

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Tuesday video features...

by Arthur Hill

-Fed, seasonality and options -A new closing high for SPY -There go small-caps -Key sectors hit new highs -Finance sector continues to stall -Regional Bank SPDR hits Resistance -AAPL, AES, BWA, DELL, DFS, FWLT, JPM, MS, PDCO, PENN, STX, XRX -Click here for the video pag... Read More 

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Stock charts of interest

by Arthur Hill

AAPL, AES, BWA, DELL, DFS, FWLT, JPM, MS, PDCO, PENN, STX, XR... Read More 

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Fed, seasonality and options

by Arthur Hill

The Fed starts its two day meeting today with its policy statement scheduled for 2:15PM ET on Wednesday. There is usually some above average volatility just before and after the Fed announcement... Read More 

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A new closing high for SPY

by Arthur Hill

Even though post-open price action has been indecisive the last three days, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) managed to move higher and close at its highest closing level for 2009. This also means that SPY finally closed above the closing highs from the consolidation... Read More 

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There go small-caps

by Arthur Hill

I first wrote about the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the January effect on December 1st. To recap: the January effect is the historical tendency for small-caps to outperform large-caps from mid December to end January... Read More 

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Key sectors hit new highs

by Arthur Hill

Three of the four offensive sectors moved to new reaction highs. The Industrials SPDR (XLI) led the charge on Monday with a 1.35% gain on the day... Read More 

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Finance sector continues to stall

by Arthur Hill

The Financials SPDR (XLF) is also one of the four offensive sectors, but it continues to lag and gets is own special entry. Despite news the Bank of America and Citigroup will repay their TARP money, XLF failed to advance with the rest of the market... Read More 

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Intermarket chart page updated

by Arthur Hill

-A trend reversal for the greenback -Gold hits first key retracement -Oil gets an oversold bounce -Bonds plunge to key support zone - Intermarket chart page updated -Further commentary after the jump With its biggest eight-day surge since March, the US Dollar Index ($USD) broke r... Read More 

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SPY: Minding the gap

by Arthur Hill

There is no real change in the medium-term or short-term situation for SPY. First and foremost, the medium-term trend remains up as SPY recorded a new high for 2009 this month. Second, SPY is consolidating near the October high and holding its gains... Read More 

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Friday video features...

by Arthur Hill

-Gap number 4 for SPY -Uninspiring two-day breadth -Bulk of evidence remains bullish -Bullish% Index divergences -NYSE AD Line hits new high -Net New Highs remain positive -Volatility Remains Low -A clear uptrend for DIA -TLT fails to hold break -A momentum breakout for the Dolla... Read More 

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Bulk of evidence remains bullish

by Arthur Hill

With stocks trading flat over the last 4-5 weeks, not much has changed for the stock market. There are still more new 52-week highs than new 52-week lows. The NYSE AD Line recorded a new high for the year. Volatility remains subdued as the VIX and VXN test their October lows... Read More 

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Bullish% Index Divergences

by Arthur Hill

The Bullish Percent Indices tell us the percentage of stocks in an index that have Point & Figure buy signals. There are many ways to interpret these numbers. Analysts can look at the absolute numbers... Read More 

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Breadth charts updated

by Arthur Hill

-Nasdaq AD Line: a serious bearish divergence -Nasdaq AD Volume Line: approaching Sep-Oct highs -Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator: up thrusts have been weak -Nasdaq Net New Highs: more new 52-week highs than new 52-week lows -NYSE AD Line: hit a new high this week -NYSE AD Volume Line... Read More 

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Uninspiring breadth

by Arthur Hill

The Nasdaq moved higher the last two days, but Net Advances were barely positive on Wednesday and negative on Thursday. Net Advancing Volume was barely positive on both days... Read More 

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Gap number 4 for SPY

by Arthur Hill

For the fourth time in five weeks, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) held support with a gap up. Here's what we know. The medium-term trend is up, SPY is consolidating, support is holding and seasonality favors the bulls (especially from December 21st)... Read More 

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SPY firms at range support

by Arthur Hill

The major index ETFs remain in medium-term uptrends and short-term trading ranges. After a 3-4 day pullback, SPY firmed near the bottom of its four week trading range. The whole world is watching range support for a break that would be negative... Read More 

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SPY fills the third gap

by Arthur Hill

SPY moved back below 110 to fill the third gap, but this is not enough to affect the medium-term uptrend. After surging to a new reaction high in mid November, the ETF has been locked in a four point trading range since November 10th... Read More 

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Stocks: Bearish Setups

by Arthur Hill

Comerica (CMA), Ebay (EBAY) and Joy Global (JOYG). Comerica (CMA) fails resistance test. After breaking support with a sharp decline in October, CMA rebounded and never came close to its October high. Broken support around 29... Read More 

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Stocks: Bullish Setups

by Arthur Hill

Gilead (GILD), Kroger (KR) and NY Times (NYT) Gilead (GILD) forms a bull flag. After a big surge on good volume in early November, GILD consolidated with a falling flag over the last few weeks. There was a bullish reversal day last Monday, but no follow through with a breakout... Read More 

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XLE and XLF: the weakest sectors

by Arthur Hill

Although the energy and the finance sectors are not related, both are clearly the weakest of the nine sector SPDRs over the last two months. The Financials SPDR (XLF) is more important to the overall market. You know the drill... Read More 

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SPY: consolidation within uptrend

by Arthur Hill

There is a difference between actual weakness and flat trading, especially within a bigger uptrend. I think we can all agree that SPY has been trending higher since early July, perhaps even since mid March... Read More 

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Under-invested in an uptrend

by Arthur Hill

What makes me think under-invested portfolio managers could keep the market buoyant into yearend? The following quote comes from Jeffrey Saut, Chief Investment Strategist at Raymond James: Net long positions at professional money management firms remain in the 50–60% range, which... Read More 

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SPY battles 111

by Arthur Hill

Despite closing up on the day, I was not impressed with Friday's price action. A surprisingly small decline (-11K) in non-farm payrolls prompted the bulls into action as SPY opened around 111.84. These gains were fleeting as SPY declined to 110.04 in late morning... Read More 

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Dollar, gold, oil and bonds

by Arthur Hill

-Dollar surges as bonds and gold plunge -The Dollar is on the verge of a breakout and trend reversal -Gold moves into corrective mode -Extended channel defines downtrend in oil -Bonds remain in overall uptrend despite last week's plunge -Inter-market charts updated Dollar********... Read More 

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MT Evidence remains bullish

by Arthur Hill

-MT Evidence remains bullish -Net New Highs are fewer, but still positive -Nasdaq AD Line shows weakness in small techs -AD Volume Lines remain below October highs -Consumer discretionary Bullish% Index declines sharply -Volatility remains low -DIA and SPY consolidate near highs ... Read More 

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An outside reversal day for SPY

by Arthur Hill

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) traded on either side of unchanged most of the day and then got hit with some late selling pressure in the final 20 minutes... Read More 

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A volatility contraction for SPY

by Arthur Hill

Despite three up gaps in the last three weeks and a volatile range on the 60-minute chart, SPY remains stuck in a trading range with contracting volatility on the daily chart. The chart shows Bollinger Bands (10,2) with Bollinger Band Width in the indicator window... Read More 

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SPY extends volatile range

by Arthur Hill

SPY gapped up and held its gains to close above 111 for the fifth time in eleven days. There is no change in the medium-term picture. SPY remains within a rising price channel overall with key support around 102... Read More 

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Tuesday video includes...

by Arthur Hill

-SPY shows resilience -QQQQ forms falling flag -IWM and the January effect -Key sectors with short-term downtrends -Stocks with bullish setups: CAKE, CHK, CSCO, DELL, INTC, NVDA and OMC -Click here for the video pag... Read More 

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Stocks with bullish setups

by Arthur Hill

A number of stocks, ETFs and indices gapped down on Friday and then firmed on Monday. Friday's gap and decline endorsed the bearish case, but firmness on Monday shows indecision. The ability to fill Friday's gap would be considered bullish... Read More 

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ST downtrends in the sector SPDRs

by Arthur Hill

On the CandleGlance charts, the four offensive sectors sport falling consolidations over the last 2-3 weeks... Read More 

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IWM and the January effect

by Arthur Hill

While the rising flag (pink) and support break at 58 were bearish for IWM, we must always be prepared for the unexpected when dealing with the stock market... Read More 

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A bull flag for QQQQ

by Arthur Hill

There is no denying the uptrend in QQQQ over the last few months. Even with the pullback over the last two weeks, QQQQ is within spitting distance of its 2009 high. Moreover, this pullback looks like a falling flag, which is a bullish consolidation... Read More 

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SPY: bulls show resilience

by Arthur Hill

Despite negative ramblings with Dubai and black Friday, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is showing resilience on the daily chart. SPY gapped down on Friday, but closed well above its open to form a white candlestick. Even though Monday's candlestick shows an intraday dip to 108... Read More