Art's Charts

October 2010

Art's Charts

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SPY maintains uptrend ahead of elections and the Fed

by Arthur Hill

First note that I will be travelling on Tuesday and will not be able to write a commentary that day. The next commentary will be Wednesday morning. It is just as well because the markets will digest the week's first big event on Wednesday morning... Read More 

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Five market indicators get downgrades

by Arthur Hill

The indicator summary remains bullish overall, but five indicators were downgraded from bullish to neutral. First, the NYSE AD Volume Line peaked in mid October and is starting to lag. Second, the Nasdaq AD Line flattened as the Nasdaq continued higher... Read More 

Art's Charts

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SPY holds uptrend as big news week looms

by Arthur Hill

There are likely to be some serious fireworks next week. This is one of the biggest news weeks that I can remember. First, we have election results on Tuesday. Second, the Fed meets on Wednesday. Third, there is the employment report on Friday... Read More 

Art's Charts

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A bull flag takes shape in the USO Oil Fund

by Arthur Hill

After a breakout and big surge towards the August highs, the USO Oil Fund (USO) took a breather with a pullback over the last few weeks. The falling zigzag in October looks like a falling flag, which is a bullish continuation pattern. The surge from 32.5 to 36... Read More 

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Charts: AA, CDE, CVS, JPM, LUB, MOT, SFD, UNM

by Arthur Hill

This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for ourselves when it comes to trading our own accounts... Read More 

Art's Charts

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SPY bounces off channel support

by Arthur Hill

There is no change on the daily chart. Even though the advance has grown laborious, SPY remains in an uptrend. The surge above 114 on September 20th marked the easy part of the advance. Since this surge, SPY has worked its way higher within a rising price channel... Read More 

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SPY Channels Higher as Euro Weakens

by Arthur Hill

There were some serious rumblings in the intermarket arena on Tuesday. Bonds plunged, long-term rates surged, the Euro declined sharply and the Dollar bounced. Forget about the Fed and QE2. These are already priced into the market. Bonds and the Dollar are looking ahead of QE2... Read More 

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Charts: AKS, ALTR, AMKR, HOLX, HRS, MAS, POOL, WHR

by Arthur Hill

Charts: AKS, ALTR, AMKR, HOLX, HRS, IDCC, MAS, POOL, WHR ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Yields tick higher as SPY and Euro stall

by Arthur Hill

I continue to watch bonds and the Euro for clues on equities. The first chart shows the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) surging on the open, but failing to break last week's high and falling back. It is possible that we have a lower high taking shape after last week's support break... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Euro breakout would be bullish for SPY

by Arthur Hill

The Euro Currency Trust (FXE) and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) have been positively correlated throughout 2010. This positive correlation is especially strong since late August. Both are up over 10% since late August... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Indicator Summary remains firmly bullish

by Arthur Hill

There is no change in the indicator summary, which remains firmly bullish. With all ten indicators in bull mode, it would take a few weeks to turn the tide bearish. I am not predicting this. I am merely reinforcing the lagging nature of this indicator summary... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Intermarket picture heats up as yields move higher and Euro stalls

by Arthur Hill

The intermarket picture is getting quite interesting. First, the 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX) broke wedge resistance to signal a continuation of last week's breakout. A bullish breakout in yields means a bearish breakdown in bonds... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Charts: AFFX, ESRX, EXP, INTC, PAYX

by Arthur Hill

AFFX bounces off support with good volume. ESRX breaks flag resistance. EXP forms long triangle. INTC bounces off support with good volume. PAYX forms bullish consolidation... Read More 

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SPY rebounds on weaker breadth

by Arthur Hill

The bulls are clearly not going down without a fight. While yesterday's rebound looked impressive, breadth fell short of the prior highs and the bulls appear to be loosing steam. The first chart shows the Nasdaq AD Volume Line and Net Advancing Volume... Read More 

Art's Charts

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SPY gaps down to test short-term support

by Arthur Hill

Big moves in the Euro and Apple weighed on stocks Tuesday. Apple declined after its earnings announcement, which was surely a buy-the-rumor sell-the-news event. The Euro Currency Trust (FXE) declined almost 2% after hitting a key retracement level last week... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Charts: AKS, BSX, MDT, MSFT, SNDK, WY

by Arthur Hill

BSX forms tight ascending triangle, MSFT breaks triangle resistance, MDT edges above consolidation resistance, SNDK forms bearish wedge. WY breaks triangle support... Read More 

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SPY holds flag breakout to affirm support

by Arthur Hill

Stalling is not the same as weakness. I noted yesterday that SPY gapped up on Wednesday and stalled. Hanging man candlesticks followed on Thursday and Friday as the stall extended... Read More 

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Nasdaq surges on negative breadth

by Arthur Hill

Here's one for the record books. The Nasdaq was up 1.37% and the Nasdaq 100 was up 2.10% on Friday, but Net Advances were a negative 97. Despite big advances, there were more declining stocks on the Nasdaq than advancing stocks... Read More 

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Indicator Summary remains positive for sixth week

by Arthur Hill

With a breakout in the Nasdaq AD Line, all ten indicators are now in bull mode. This indicator summary has been positive since September 3rd, going on six weeks now. DIA and QQQQ are challenging their April highs, but the Finance SPDR (XLF) remains below its summer highs... Read More 

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SPY tests gap as finance leads lower

by Arthur Hill

The finance sector remains a thorn in the bull's hoof. Even though majority of the market is in bull mode, the Finance SPDR (XLF) remains a serious laggard... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Charts: AN, BSX, CAG, GILD, LEAP, TIN, TLAB

by Arthur Hill

AN forms a high volume hammer. BSX forms small ascending triangle. CAG breaks resistance on good volume. GILD breaks flag resistance. LEAP consolidates after breakout. TIN breaks triangle resistance on big volume. TLAB gaps to triangle resistance... Read More 

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SPY is bverbought and built to stay that way

by Arthur Hill

With another surge higher the last four days, the major index ETFs are overbought by most measures. SPY is up over 13% in seven weeks, 14-day RSI moved above 70 and CCI is near 180. RSI was last above 70 in mid April... Read More 

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Stocks just love a weak Dollar

by Arthur Hill

Maybe it is just coincidence, but there sure is a strong negative correlation between the Dollar and stocks. Stocks started weak as the Dollar surged in early trading. The FOMC minutes hit the market in the afternoon and the Dollar swooned as QE2 became more of a reality... Read More 

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SBUX surges through pennant resistance

by Arthur Hill

After consolidating near a key retracement and forming four doji, Starbucks (SBUX) broke through pennant resistance with a surge early Tuesday. The June highs mark the next resistance level. A move below Tuesday's low would signal a breakout failure... Read More 

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Charts of Interest: CTAS, EBAY, EXPD, PFCB, RIMM, SBUX

by Arthur Hill

CTAS shows 3 weeks of relative weakness. EBAY breaks flag support. EXPD forms rising flag on lower volume. PFCB consolidates after long red candlestick. RIMM retraces 50% rising wedge. SBUX stalls at key retracement with four doji... Read More 

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Nasdaq Net Advancing Volume shows weakness $NAUD

by Arthur Hill

A review of my short-term indicators confirms short-term uptrend, but there are some signs that the advancing is tiring. In particular, the 10-day SMA for Net Advancing Volume shows some weakness over the last two weeks... Read More 

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Sentiment reading gets quite bullish as SPY hits channel trendline

by Arthur Hill

Survey data is often used to measure extremes in bullish sentiment or bearish sentiment. It is bearish when too many respondents are bullish and bullish when too many are bearish. These surveys spend most of their time between bullish and bearish extremes (i.e. without signals)... Read More 

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Indicator Summary remains firmly positive

by Arthur Hill

The indicator summary remains positive, but there are a couple of concerns. First, relative weakness in the finance cast a cloud over the current advance. Second, the Nasdaq has been underperforming the NY Composite the last two weeks. This may be just a pullback... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Range resistance turns first support for SPY

by Arthur Hill

There is no change on the daily chart so I will go directly to the 60-minute chart. Whether or not SPY holds its breakout depends on the market's reaction to the employment report. The news is not what is important here. It is the market's reaction to the news... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Charts of Interest: ADSK, AN, ARO, DDS, ETR, GILD

by Arthur Hill

ADSK forms small descending triangle. ARO breaks out on good volume. AN tests support, DDS underperforms within consolidation. ETR shows weakness with expanding volume. GILD forms bull flag near resistance... Read More 

Art's Charts

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SPY turns indecisive with a doji

by Arthur Hill

On the daily chart, SPY broke above range resistance with a gap and long white candlestick on Tuesday. These developments affirmed the medium-term uptrend and reinforced short-term support around 113. The bulls are on firm footing as long as this breakout holds... Read More 

Art's Charts

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SPY breaks flag/wedge resistance with gap

by Arthur Hill

On the daily chart, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) broke above range resistance with a gap and long white candlestick on Tuesday. This move clearly keeps the uptrend alive. SPY broke above its summer highs in late September and this breakout held... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Five stocks with tight consolidations and one breakout

by Arthur Hill

Charts of Interest: CSCO, DDS, ERTS, FITB, MI, STT ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking... Read More 

Art's Charts

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SPY and RSI test short-term support

by Arthur Hill

There is no change in the daily chart analysis. An ABC correction could be taking shape, but there is no confirmation because the short-term trend remains up. A short-term trend reversal is needed for the earliest possible indication that a bigger decline is starting... Read More 

Art's Charts

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SPY holds range as Nasdaq breadth weakens

by Arthur Hill

The NYSE AD Volume Line moved to a new high last week, but the Nasdaq AD Volume Line failed to exceed its prior high and traded flat. We also saw a little relative weakness in the Nasdaq and techs relative to the broader market last week... Read More 

Art's Charts

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SPY fails to hold early surge

by Arthur Hill

There is still no change on the daily chart. SPY continues to stall around 114-115 and has yet to break support. Even though the trend is clearly up here, I am leaving the ABC correction possibility on the chart. SPY is also near channel resistance and overbought... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Indicator Summary remains positive

by Arthur Hill

The indicator summary has been positive for almost a full month. While there are no signs of medium-term weakness, there are some signs of short-term fatigue setting into the market. First, the Russell 2000 ETF is still battling resistance from its summer highs... Read More