The Canadian Technician

Is The $TRAN Leaving The Station? All Aboard!!

Greg Schnell

Greg Schnell

Chief Technical Analyst, Osprey Strategic

Here is the chart of the transports. The Three major subsectors are $DJUSRR, $DJUSTK, $DJUSAR.

We have been stymied waiting for these transports to break out. The Transports topped shortly after the rest of the world stock markets topped out. Most  global stock markets made their tops in March of 2011. The Transports made it up for two more highs in May 2011 with the US market top and the $TRAN made one last attempt in July as seen below. So the transports have followed the world order lower, but with no downward enthusiasm in the last year. Really a sideways trading range, with a downward sloping top.

$tran 20121213


So what is happening now? Well in the first week of November, the transports pushed above the downward trendline and found resistance at the horizontal level.  This week, we have pushed back above the downward trendline and are testing the horizontal trendline again. So if you trade downward sloping trend line breaks, your bullish. If you are waiting for the horizontal line to break, you are still on hold.

As I pointed out yesterday, the MACD line has entered positive ground for the first time since the spring. Looking for green shoots in December!!! As I sit with a fresh new blanket of snow in the back yard, it seems early. 

But it is travel and tourism season, it is FDX and UPS season, it is containers from Asia season and it is the season for Automakers to start focussing on 2014 models. 

I had a scan running yesterday that brought up CLNE with a burst of volume. The trend in WPRT or WPT.TO looks promising.  Here is Navistar.

NAV 20121213

Here is Cummins Engine.

CMI 20121221

Here is Paccar which owns Peterbilt and Kenworth. 

PCAR 20121213

Here is ALSN transmission. Not quite bullish yet.

Alsn 20121213
So as the Canadians get on Westjet to warmer climates.

WJA.TO 20121213

As the Americans get on United Continental.

UAL 20121213

CP Rail.

CP 20121213
Things and people are starting to, I repeat, are starting to move. But when charts are breaking trendlines, thats why technicians find optimal entry points.

I hope you are finding some in here as well.

DON'T Forget To Register For SCU. Stockcharts University. The link is on the home page on the right. Time to make some money if this market is going to start moving!

Hey, if you have comments about my blog, feel free to comment. Both positive and negative. I love getting the feedback. 

Oh... can't resist! All Aboard!!

Cp-holiday-train 2012
Photo: Attribution to CP Rail.

 

Good Trading,

Greg Schnell, CMT.

Greg Schnell
About the author: , CMT, MFTA is Chief Technical Analyst at Osprey Strategic specializing in intermarket and commodities analysis. He is also the co-author of Stock Charts For Dummies (Wiley, 2018). Based in Calgary, Greg is a board member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the chairman of the CSTA Calgary chapter. He is an active member of both the CMT Association and the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA). Learn More