ChartWatchers

This Market Is Officially Overvalued

Carl Swenlin

Carl Swenlin

Founder, DecisionPoint.com

On any given day we can find a wide range of opinions as to whether the stock market is undervalued or overvalued, and the bases for these assessments are also wide ranging and sometimes overly optimistic. I think a good starting point for estimating value is to use a price to earnings ratio (P/E) based upon twelve-month-trailing "as reported" or GAAP earnings (calculated using Generally Accepted Accounting Principles). I do not assert that this is necessarily the best method, but it is simple, easy to understand, and doesn't rely on assumptions about future earnings. The normal range for the GAAP P/E ratio is between 10 (undervalued) to 20 (overvalued). The following chart shows the S&P 500 Index in relation to this range.

Sc[1]

As you can see the S&P 500 has reached the top of the normal range and is overvalued. This kind of situation doesn't always lead to disaster, but it tells us at the very least that conditions are not ideal for major new commitments to the long side. A price reversal is possible, but it is also possible that earnings will continue to rise, creating a rational environment for prices to continue higher. The bottom line is that valuations are unfavorable, making the market more vulnerable in this regard.

Watching the windsock,
Carl

Carl Swenlin
About the author: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. A pioneer in the creation of online technical resources, he was president and founder of DecisionPoint.com, one of the premier market timing and technical analysis websites on the web. DecisionPoint specializes in stock market indicators and charting. Since DecisionPoint merged with StockCharts.com in 2013, Carl has served a consulting technical analyst and blog contributor. Learn More