The Canadian Technician

$WTIC Breaks Support, $TSX Teeters On The Trendline

Greg Schnell

Greg Schnell

Chief Technical Analyst, Osprey Strategic

Commodities blow out.

I realize Gold breaking the bottom of the triangle is the big news of the day. As that is pretty obvious, I wanted to review oil as it just blew up on the PnF chart as well.

This is the Oil chart which updates EOD. You can see the $81.00 price target has been there before the technical breakdown of support.

 

$WTIC 20130412


Here is OIL, the ETF.

I had to use the 60 Minute chart to show the breakdown, but here it is.

OIL 60 Minute PNF 20130412
You can see the target price objective on this 60 minute chart is $20.30 on this OIL ETF. That is down at the support levels of November which is $85  equivalent on the $WTIC chart. (Matching the dates). 

Bottom line, commodities let go today which is a continuation of the trend. What worries me most is the big picture triangle of Crude Oil. A breakout through the bottom of a 4 year wedge is significant.It has not happened yet.  The longer the time frame of the line, the more important the breakdown. 

Here is the Crude oil chart I am referring to. Remember this chart will update end of day. You can see this in the chart title where it shows (EOD) in brackets. As I write this, the actual price of oil is $91.00

$WTIC 20130412 Weekly

Moving to the $TSX, the 12,500 level on the $TSX chart was resistance. If you look horizontally at that level, it has been significant. This week the $TSX has rejected the price action  at that level again. 

$TSX 20130412
I'm staying focused on the Huge Head/shoulders chart for the $TSX. This could be the final high before we test the neckline at 11250.(not Shown). 

Here is the PnF Daily.  You can see the PnF target is 11550.

$TSX PnF Chart 20130412

A break below 12200 starts the red line saying we are in a bear market. A move below 12250 would put an 'o' at the same level as the previous 'o'. If the $TSX moves below 12200, it will put another 'o' which would break below previous support and the uptrend line. Thats an important level.

Just to review, $COPPER is considered an economic indicator. It broke down below a 3 year trendline.

$Gold has now broke down below the 2 year trendline.

$WTIC breaks PnF support. Next area to test is $86, then $76.

There is a trend here so far.

 

Good Trading,

Greg Schnell, CMT 

 

Greg Schnell
About the author: , CMT, MFTA is Chief Technical Analyst at Osprey Strategic specializing in intermarket and commodities analysis. He is also the co-author of Stock Charts For Dummies (Wiley, 2018). Based in Calgary, Greg is a board member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the chairman of the CSTA Calgary chapter. He is an active member of both the CMT Association and the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA). Learn More