Here is the Energy dashboard.
I like to look at two things.
1) Position relative to the 10 week.
2) Slope of the 10 week line - Up, Down, Sideways
My arrow covers it a little bit, but it looks like a failed breakout on the $BRENT chart, and has now moved right through the 10 week to the downside. $WTIC looks better though. Heating oil and $WTIC both have slopes heading higher. $BRENT continues lower...
Here are the precious metals. Gold is just under the 10 week. You can see Silver and Platinum are below as well. The Gold Miners are trying to get support here at the lows. The fourth test is not usually a successful support test. This would be a very important line. If the miners start to make new lows, we could expect more pressure on the Gold and Copper commodities. This would also be an excellent place for gold to bounce from as it is trying to gain support at the trendline. So it is a decision point for the precious metal Gold, for silver and for the gold miners as they are all resting and testing on trendlines over the weekend. It will be very difficult for these to move higher if the USD continues to move higher and the Euro lower. You can see Platinum is at a level where it got great support in 2010 and it held earlier this year.
Copper, Industrial Metals, Lumber, Agriculture and Livestock. What I am concerned about here are the industrial metals taking out the Q3 lows. Lumber has slowed down but still well above the 10 week. Copper is still 5% above the Q3 lows.
Soft Commodities like Wheat, Corn, Sugar, Soybean. As much as I like the farmers, I see no support from Q3 lows as they all fell below them this week. For me, I would stand aside or short, but going long is risky here. I want someone else to start pushing this up before I'll join the party.
With the European leaders adding the former Goldman Sachs banker in Italy, we'll continue to watch if there is improved confidence. The market did not seem to find any solace in yesterday's coffee meeting outcome.
In Summary, The precious metals really need to get bought here in the last week of November. It is an excellent buy point with a stop immediately below.Agriculture
Have a good weekend.
Once again, Ed Carlson is presenting to the Calgary Chapter of the CSTA on December 13th at 6:30 PM.
Visit WWW.CSTA.ORG on Monday to register.
Lastly, Thanks for checking in!
Good Trading,
Greg Schnell, CMT
