Stocks extended their uptrends on Monday-Tuesday, but fell back after the Fed meeting and declined on Thursday. Even though a post-Fed decline may seem negative, it could be just a little buy-the-rumor and sell-the-news at work. In addition, the fiscal cliff circus continues to dominate the news. With stocks holding up this week, the indicator summary remains firmly positive. The NYSE AD Line hit a new high. I upgraded the AD Volume Lines because of breakouts. The trend-structure group remains a glaring negative. This is because the major index ETFs broke support with the October-November declines and I have yet to see a corresponding resistance break to signal an uptrend. Nevertheless, the bulk of the evidence remains bullish for stocks right now.
- AD Lines: Neutral. The Nasdaq AD Line moved back to its early November levels, but needs follow through to reverse the downtrend and turn bullish. The NYSE AD Line hit a new high this week and remains in a strong uptrend.
- AD Volume Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq AD Volume Line broke the April trend line and the 125-day EMA of Net Advancing Volume turned positive. The NYSE AD Volume Line broke its September trend line and edged above its October high.
- Net New Highs: Bullish. Nasdaq Net New Highs turned positive in late November and the cumulative line is above its 10-day EMA. NYSE Net New Highs are positive and the cumulative line hit a new high this week. NYSE Net New Highs are firmly positive and the cumulative line hit a new high this week.
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. All nine Bullish Percent Indices are above 50%.
- VIX/VXN: Bullish. The Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) and the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) bounced off their lows, but remain at relatively low levels and below 20%.
- Trend-Structure: Bearish. DIA, IWM, MDY and SPY moved above their early November highs Tuesday, but fell back on Wednesday-Thursday. It is hard to tell still and this 4-5 week advance may be a corrective rally within a bigger downtrend. Of note, QQQ failed to break its early November high.
- SPY Momentum: Bullish. RSI broke above 60 on Tuesday, but fell back on Thursday. MACD(5,35,5) turned positive and remains above its signal line. A move back into negative territory would be bearish. The Aroon Oscillator (20) hit +50 to turn bullish in early December. The momentum cup remains half full.
- Offensive Sector Performance: Bullish. The Industrials SPDR (XLI) hit a new high to lead all sectors this week. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and Finance SPDR (XLF) are near their highs and showing strength. The Technology SPDR (XLK) remains the laggard.
- Nasdaq Performance: Bearish. The $COMPQ:$NYA ratio edged to multi-month lows in early December as the Nasdaq continues to underperform the NY Composite.
- Small-cap Performance: Bullish. The $RUT:$OEX ratio found support near the October lows and broke above its early November high in early December. Small-caps are starting to outperform again. Looks like the January effect is happening in early December.
- Breadth Charts (here) and Inter-market charts (here) have been updated.
Previous turns include:
Positive on 7-December-12
Negative on 9-November-12
Neutral on 26-October-12
Positive on 6-July-12
Negative on 18-May-12
Positive on 30-December-11
Negative on 16-December-11
Positive on 3-December-11
Negative on 23-November-11
Positive on 28-October-11
Negative on 5-August-11
Neutral on 29-Jul-11
Positive on 30-Jun-11
Negative on 17-Jun-11
Positive on 25-Mar-11
Negative on 18-Mar-11
Positive on 3-Sep-10
Negative on 13-Aug-10
Positive on 6-Aug-10
Negative on 24-Jun-10
Positive on 18-Jun-10
Negative on 11-Jun-10
Positive on 5-March-10
Negative on 5-Feb-10
Positive on 11-Sept-09
About the author:
Arthur Hill, CMT, is the Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focusing predominantly on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within the trend, and setting key price levels has made him an esteemed market technician. Arthur has written articles for numerous financial publications including Barrons and Stocks & Commodities Magazine. In addition to his Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, he holds an MBA from the Cass Business School at City University in London.
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