There is no change in the indicator summary. On the positive side, the NYSE AD Line is trading near a 52-week high, NYSE Net New Highs are positive and eight of the nine sector Bullish Percent Indices are above 50%. On the negative side, the AD Volume Lines remain weak, Nasdaq Net New Highs are weak and small-caps are seriously underperforming. The market is quite split, but the bulls have the edge as long as the majority of the major index ETFs hold support from the July lows.
- AD Lines: Neutral. The Nasdaq AD Line formed a higher low in July, but needs to break the early July high to reverse the medium-term downtrend. The NYSE AD Line is consolidating near a 52-week high and remains in an uptrend.
- AD Volume Lines: Bearish. The NYSE and Nasdaq AD Volume Lines failed near broken support from their spring lows. Both peaked in early July and moved lower the last five weeks.
- Net New Highs: Bullish. Nasdaq new highs dipped into negative territory the last two weeks and the Cumulative Net New Highs line is below its 10-day EMA. NYSE Net New Highs remain strong. Net New Highs have been largely positive since early June and the cumulative line hit a new high this week.
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. Eight of the nine BPIs are above 50%. Only the Technology Bullish% Index ($BPINFO) is below 50%.
- VIX/VXN: Bullish. The Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) and the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) remain at relatively low levels, which means the fear-factor is low. This is positive for stocks. A move above the July highs would change this.
- Trend-Structure: Neutral. SPY and DIA have higher highs and higher lows working since early June, but MDY and IWM peaked in early July and moved lower the last five weeks. QQQ is hitting resistance near its mid July highs. Breakouts in MDY, IWM and QQQ are needed to turn this indicator group bullish.
- SPY Momentum: Bullish. MACD (5,35,5) and Aroon remain in positive territory. RSI continues to trade in the 50-60 zone.
- Offensive Sector Performance: Bearish. The consumer discretionary, finance and technology sectors are underperforming the S&P 500 on the one and three month timeframes.
- Nasdaq Performance: Bullish. The $COMPQ:$NYA ratio has been flat since April, but has yet to break down.
- Small-cap Performance: Bearish. The $RUT:$OEX ratio plunged in July as small-caps seriously underperformed large-caps.
- Breadth Charts (here) and Inter-market charts (here) have been updated.
This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in buying and selling pressure. With 10 indicator groups, the medium-term evidence is unlikely to change drastically overnight.
Previous turns include:
Positive on 6-July-12
Negative on 18-May-12
Positive on 30-December-11
Negative on 16-December-11
Positive on 3-December-11
Negative on 23-November-11
Positive on 28-October-11
Negative on 5-August-11
Neutral on 29-Jul-11
Positive on 30-Jun-11
Negative on 17-Jun-11
Positive on 25-Mar-11
Negative on 18-Mar-11
Positive on 3-Sep-10
Negative on 13-Aug-10
Positive on 6-Aug-10
Negative on 24-Jun-10
Positive on 18-Jun-10
Negative on 11-Jun-10
Positive on 5-March-10
Negative on 5-Feb-10
Positive on 11-Sept-09
