The indicator summary remains decidedly negative and is unlikely to turn positive anytime soon. After some serious technical damage the last few weeks, the bulls need time to regroup and form some sort of base. At this point, I will simply follow the evidence until there are signs of a change.
- AD Lines: Bearish. The Nasdaq AD Line broke down in March and again in May. The NYSE AD Line broke below its June low in early August and the 125-day EMA of the Net Advances Ratio ($NYAD:$NYTOT) turned negative.
- AD Volume Lines: Bearish. The AD Volume Lines peaked in late April and formed lower highs in July and broke down in early August. Nothing but downtrend here.
- Net New Highs: Bearish. Nasdaq Net New Highs turned negative in late July and the Cumulative Net New Highs Line moved below its 10-day EMA. NYSE Net New Highs plunged in early August and the Cumulative Net New Highs Line moved below its 10-day EMA.
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bearish. Eight of the nine sector Bullish Percent Indices are below 50%. The utilities BPI is at 69.7% and the consumer staples BPI is at 48.78%.
- VIX/VXN: Bearish. The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) and the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) broke above 25 in late July and surged in August. An uptrend in fear is bearish for the stock market.
- Trend Structure: Bearish. DIA, IWM, MDY, QQQ and SPY broke below their March-June lows to start downtrends in early August.
- SPY Momentum: Bearish. RSI(14) remains below 40, MACD(5,35,5) is in negative territory and Aroon(20) is below -50.
- Offensive Sector Performance: Bearish. The Industrials SPDR (XLI) and Finance SPDR (XLF) were already showing relative weakness in July. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and Technology ETF (XLK) followed suit the last few weeks.
- Nasdaq Performance: Bullish. Technically, the $COMPQ:$NYA ratio remains in an uptrend for 2011 as the Nasdaq holds up better than the NY Composite.
- Small-cap Performance: Bearish. The $RUT:$OEX ratio is another story as the it moved to new lows in early August and remains in a clear downtrend.
- Breadth Charts (here) and Inter-market charts (here) have been updated.
This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in buying and selling pressure. With 10 indicator groups, the medium-term evidence is unlikely to change drastically overnight.
Previous turns include:
Positive on 11-Sept-09
Negative on 5-Feb-10
Positive on 5-March-10
Negative on 11-Jun-10
Positive on 18-Jun-10
Negative on 24-Jun-10
Positive on 6-Aug-10
Negative on 13-Aug-10
Positive on 3-Sep-10
Negative on 18-Mar-11
Positive on 25-Mar-11
Negative on 17-Jun-11
Positive on 30-Jun-11
Neutral on 29-Jul-11
Negative on 5-August-11
