Descriptive superlatives - are unnecessary to see the risk in this market. It is overbought of course; manipulated probably; technically eye-opening just by virtue of an historic string of sessions failing to break even the S&P 5-day Moving Average. How to describe unprecedented action? Unsustainable.
As are most upending moves that upset conventional wisdom; this one too is based largely on Oil at the moment. It's being (for members only).
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES is what this is about. (Redacted heart of discussion); doesn't that create a different kind of liquidity crisis?
A diminished or changing Petrodollar recycling is so big a deal it explains a lack of US (redacted). A 'Black-gold swan'.
Daily action - holding position-posture and live intraday (both) short-sale from the E-mini / December S&P 2072 level over the weekend.
We do expect the new week (reserved projection). Enjoy the holiday!
Prior highlights follow:
This market in relation to the overall economic growth 'they pretend' is out there, is a stock market version of unrequited love (as the two should hit it off together after a courtship driven by years of Federal Reserve stimulus).
What can happen; likely translates into (reserved overall analysis).
Bottom-line: this is Thanksgiving; we sure wish everyone a joyous holiday; at the same time we realize that October's early harvest results in a purge; but there's no way a proper planting for the new season would be mature in such a fast-paced manner. This is dangerous; it's momentum-driven, mostly by (reserved); against a backdrop of a strong Dollar; that should negatively impact margin and revenue pressures on many multinational companies.
It's not complicated: a manipulated market where they are once again very afraid, and I mean very afraid, to let go; knowing what might happen. If not afraid then they're complacently overconfident. Caveat emptor.
Instead of 'giving Thanks' this time of year and harvesting gains; they might in a sense feel empowered by the incredible move which set an historical record just today, by virtue of the longest string 'ever' over the 5-day moving average (attests to the controlled if not manipulated nature of this advance).
When the market climbs like this, with V(reserved). However, the VIX as a proxy is actually a bit higher than in a sense (more; but it's 'Beta' is higher).
The idea that this market will 'never go down' or persist for 20 years is folly; not gonna happen. Nor will it persist well into 2015 without interruption. In reality, it's again so high that (as detailed for ingerletter.com members).
Enjoy the holiday weekend!
Gene Inger