The past three months have been torture for the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), the ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100. The large-cap stocks that dominate the QQQ performance have been breaking down one after another, and that has weighed much more heavily on the NASDAQ 100 than it has on the S&P 500 index, as the latter is much more diversified over 500 large, multinational companies. The breakdowns of Apple (AAPL), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Tesla (TSLA) have really taken a toll, while weakness in other key stocks like Alphabet (GOOGL) has added to the weakness in the QQQ.
The current head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern in the QQQ is a bearish continuation pattern, but, in the short-term, today's bounce off major neckline support could help to propel the QQQ higher and into a possible right shoulder top over the next week or two. Check this out:
The H&S pattern is not confirmed until the neckline is broken. So it's quite possible that QQQ simply rallies off today's neckline support test. The alternative, a breakdown below the neckline, would be quite bearish, especially if accompanied by heavy volume, and certainly increase the odds of much further weakness ahead.
I look forward to seeing you at MarketVision.
Tom
