Intermediate-Term Trend Model NEUTRAL on SPX! More Buy Signals Extinguished

I've been updating these Scoreboards frequently starting on October 5th. Three very important signal changes arrived Friday and today. We don't generally see many updates to the Intermediate-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO), but on Friday both the SPX and OEX followed the NDX and logged SELL signals. Now we have a IT Trend Model Neutral signal on the SPX. I was feeling somewhat safe this morning when I looked at the Swenlin Trading Oscillators and saw that on Friday they had ticked up. When I updated the chart today, I noted that both indicators are falling again.

An IT Trend Model Neutral signal is generated when the 20-EMA crosses below the 50-EMA while the 50-EMA is above the 200-EMA. Had the 50-EMA been below the 200-EMA, then we would have had a SELL signal. The low that was put in last week was a successful test of both the longer-term rising bottoms trendline, as well as shorter-term support at the June low. Given the new Neutral signal and near vertical PMO, I suspect this will not hold. Carl concluded on Friday that we could likely see some choppy action this week as the bulls wrestle control.

Both the SPX and OEX logged IT PMO SELL signals when the weekly PMO crossed below its signal line. Both of these charts impress upon us the importance of holding rising bottoms trendline. A decisive (3%+) breakdown below that would signal the end of this cyclical bull market. Be sure to read Carl's "Weekly Wrap". He has a great monthly chart that illustrates this.

These are the Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs). The move up has already ended and we see both are back in a decline. There is room for both the travel lower, but we are already seeing oversold extremes. While the oversold condition is bullish, the direction is bearish. I'm expecting lackluster sideways movement this week on the major indexes.