If there ever was a time to be worried about where the market could be headed, this is it. We've seen the weekly jobless claims go from a boring week-to-week reading of just over 200,000 all the way to now 6 million over the course of a month. We saw the government monthly non-farm payroll report go from adding a few hundred thousand jobs to a loss of 700,000 jobs in the blink of an eye. And, by next month, start thinking millions.
We've seen the world shut down. Restaurants, hotels, cruise ships shuttered. Air traffic falling 90%. Auto production lines stopped. Everyone hunkered down. And, worst of all, so many getting sick and many dying as we look for a cure. A horror show unfolding before our very eyes.
What else have we seen? We've seen the S&P lose almost 40% of its value in a flash, stunning almost everyone who was holding stocks long over the past month. We've seen more history making moves - both up and down - than any of us could ever imagined. All over the span of 30 days.
So, when you see a headline like you do in this article, you must be shaking your head, and it would be hard to blame you! Yet, in looking at everything that has been thrust upon us these past 30 days, there is light at the end of the tunnel, even if we do indeed revisit the most recent low of 2191 on the S&P.
Of course, no one can predict if and when an "ultimate" bottom will be hit, though that March 23 low could have done the trick. But, in looking at everything that has already taken place, examining those periods in history that came closest to this current pummeling, and considering the amount of fear that has enveloped the market, it's telling us that the worst of the worst may have already taken place.
What else has happened? Something also unseen in the past - the US government throwing everything it's got (and more) at the economy in an effort to keep the US financial structure afloat as we move through this diabolical virus. And, if round one and two don't do the trick, watch for rounds three and four. The Fed "all in" behind the economy shows the seriousness of the situation - and it is going to be attacked full force until things turn around.
Our Chief Market Strategist, Tom Bowley, conducted a webinar this past Friday which, I believe, puts everything in perspective. What has history shown us? What side of the buy/sell side is Wall Street on? What are signals, including the VIX and Put/Call ratio, telling us? What strategies might traders employ during these highly volatile times? How important is Accumulation/Distribution these days (hint: VERY!)? This is an all encompassing webinar, including how you can use both EarningsBeats.com and StockCharts.com tools to find high reward-to-risk trading candidates in the current market environment, and we would like EVERYONE who is looking for answers to have a copy of the recording. So, if you are NOT currently an EarningsBeats.com or EarningsBeats Digest member, just click on this link and fill out the EarningsBeats Digest form; we will make sure you get the recording before Monday's open. In the meantime, be safe.
At your service,
John Hopkins
