DecisionPoint has been on an Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signal since January 17, 2014, so a Neutral signal is a big deal as far as our timing models are concerned. The signal was generated when the 20-EMA crossed below 50-EMA. It was not a SELL signal because the 50-EMA was above the 200-EMA which implies it is in a "bull market".
The steep continuation of the decline Friday made the breakdown from the foundation of the rising bottoms line "decisive". It is nearly a decisive move from support denoted by the blue line below. Given the new Intermediate-Term Trend Model Neutral signal, it is reasonable to assume that price could make a move to and possibly past the 200-EMA.
Looking at a longer-term daily chart, we see that the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) has plenty of room to fall before becoming even a little oversold. This doesn't bode well for TLT. Worse yet is the strongest area of support is at the lows of 2013 around 96.
The weekly picture doesn't look much better given price has penetrated the 17-week EMA and the weekly PMO generated a PMO SELL signal in overbought territory today.
Conclusion: Should TLT penetrate support at the 2012 high, the next area of long-term support will be at the 2013 lows.
Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.
Happy Charting!
- Erin
