In the fundamental economic forum, the balance of economic data has been "positive" as of late with the exception of the housing market. And this data has engendered a belief that the Fed shall begin to
pullback on its bond-buying campaign - which shall simply be US Dollar positive. We don't believe so, for what is now being called the first world "synchronous expansion" since 2007 suggests that the relative nature of trading equities puts the European and Asian markets in a position to "out perform" in the years ahead. Hence, money shall leave the US for riskier markets if the viewpoint holds up.
And to this point, the technical environment for the US Dollar remains "bearish" given the break of trendline support as well as both the 180-day and 420-day moving averages. Of particular concern for US Dollar bulls is that prices failed at this latter juncture just recently, with a number of individual currencies consolidating their recent gains, and now appearing as of yesterday to be "lifting off." Attention is to be paid.
If this shall be bullish of currencies, then the New Zealand Dollar is our choice. But if one is looking towards equities, then we'll look at the Energy and Materials groups.
Good luck and good trading,
Richard
