The Great Rotation is in its early stages. For those initiated to this concept, it is simply that rising interest rates will cause asset allocators to sell bonds and buy stocks. And we shall posit that it shall become more pronounced in the weeks and months ahead as interest rates are on the verge of rising faster than many believe at this point.
Technically speaking, this is due to the 10-year note yield developing weekly "head & shoulders" bottom forming on the weekly chart. We'll mention that a bullish monthly key reversal to the upside is also forming, but the basis of this sharp move lies in the confirmation of the "head & shoulders" bottom on a close above 2.03%...a mere 8 basis points higher. Further, the volatile manner in which the 10-year note is trading would suggest it could happen next week, which would then target the 2.90% level...last seen in July-2011.
So, although the S&P 500 and other indices may be overbought in the short-term, then can remain so for quite some period of time. And we are correct in our 10-year note yield assessment, then our target of the S&P 500 is 2000...and that is not a typo.
Good luck and good trading,
Richard
