Last Friday I said we should be looking for a short-correction because the CVI (Climactic Volume Oscillator) was very overbought, and prices were approaching overhead resistance. There was a very small correction, but prices kept moving higher, while the CVI zigzagged at overbought levels. We also observed the STVO (Short-Term Volume Oscillator) move down from overbought to neutral. This is the kind of thing that happens in bull markets, and bear market rallys. There is no guarantee that this bullish behavior will continue, but I suspect that it will.
Now medium-term indicators are reaching overbought levels -- see the VTO above and the intermediate-term breadth and volume indicators below. Clearing this overbought condition will be more difficult than the short-term clearing was.
Further complicating the issue is the overhead resistance. The market has reached the resistance line at the same time that internals have become overbought. A breakout at this time would be a very bullish sign; however, a real pullback, allowing the buildup of some internal compression would not necessarily be a bad thing.
About the author:
Carl Swenlin is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. A pioneer in the creation of online technical resources, he was president and founder of DecisionPoint.com, one of the premier market timing and technical analysis websites on the web. DecisionPoint specializes in stock market indicators and charting. Since DecisionPoint merged with StockCharts.com in 2013, Carl has served a consulting technical analyst and blog contributor.
Learn More