Stocks were hit with a reversal day on Wednesday, but this was not enough to affect the bigger uptrends. The AD Lines and AD Volume Lines hit new highs just before the reversal day. Net New Highs remain strong and the offensive sectors are leading again. Despite this bullish environment, the major index ETFs remain ripe for a corrective period.
- AD Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq and NYSE AD Lines hit new highs this week and pulled back the last two days. The big trends are still up.
- AD Volume Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq and NYSE AD Volume Lines hit new highs this week and pulled back the last two days. The big trends are still up.
- Net New Highs: Bullish. Nasdaq and NYSE Net New Highs remain firmly positive and their cumulative lines moved to new highs.
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. All nine BPIs are above 50%.
- VIX/VXN: Bullish. The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) and the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) bounced this week, but remain in downtrends overall.
- Trend-Structure: Bullish. DIA, IWM, MDY, QQQ and SPY hit 52-week highs this week.
- SPY Momentum: Bullish. RSI has been in the bull zone (40-80) since mid December. MACD(5,35,5) has been positive since early December. The Aroon Oscillator has not been below -50 since late November.
- Offensive Sector Performance: Bullish. XLF, XLI, XLK and XLY pulled back sharply the last few days, but all four hit 52-week highs recently and the offensive sectors show relative strength overall.
- Nasdaq Performance: Bullish. The $COMPQ:$NYC ratio is bullish as it broke above its January high at the beginning of May. The Nasdaq is outperforming the NY Composite year-to-date.
- Small-cap Performance: Bullish. The $RUT:$OEX ratio fell back this week, but the break above the late April high is holding. I would not give this one much wiggle room though.
- Breadth Charts (here) and Intermarket Charts (here) have been updated.
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is
not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise).
We all need to think for ourselves when it comes to trading our own accounts. First, it is
the only way to really learn. Second, we are the only ones responsible for our decisions.
Think of these charts as food for further analysis. Before making a trade, it is important
to have a plan. Plan the trade and trade the plan. Among other things, this includes setting
a trigger level, a target area and a stop-loss level. It is also important to plan for three
possible price movements: advance, decline or sideways. Have a plan for all three scenarios
BEFORE making the trade. Consider possible holding times. And finally, look at overall market
conditions and sector/industry performance.
About the author:
Arthur Hill, CMT, is the Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focusing predominantly on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within the trend, and setting key price levels has made him an esteemed market technician. Arthur has written articles for numerous financial publications including Barrons and Stocks & Commodities Magazine. In addition to his Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, he holds an MBA from the Cass Business School at City University in London.
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