Stocks were mixed on Monday with the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) and Nasdaq 100 Equal-Weight ETF (QQEW) edging higher, while the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) edged lower. QQQ was weighed down by weakness in QCOM, AAPL and GOOG. The Dow was helped by MMM, which hit a 52-week high, a BA. The sectors were also mixed with six of nine up. The gains and losses were fractional with the Technology SPDR (XLK) moving the most (-.64%). Retail sales will be reported before the open and this report could set the stage for Tuesday. The consensus is for a slight gain. Anything negative could weigh on the market and the Retail SPDR (XRT). As noted in yesterday's market message, XRT formed a falling wedge and is trying to firm in the 62.50 area. A break above 63.50 would signal a continuation higher and this could lift the broader market.
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Key Reports and Events:
Tue - Jan 15 - 08:30 - Retail Sales
Tue - Jan 15 - 08:30 – Producer Price Index (PPI)
Tue - Jan 15 - 08:30 - Empire State Manufacturing
Wed - Jan 16 - 07:00 - MBA Mortgage Index
Wed - Jan 16 - 08:30 – Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Wed - Jan 16 - 09:15 - Industrial Production
Wed - Jan 16 - 10:00 - NAHB Housing Market Index
Wed - Jan 16 - 10:30 - Oil Inventories
Wed - Jan 16 - 14:00 - Fed Beige Book
Thu - Jan 17 - 08:30 - Jobless Claims
Thu - Jan 17 - 08:30 - Housing Starts/Building Permits
Thu - Jan 17 - 10:00 - Philadelphia Fed
Thu - Jan 17 - 10:30 - Natural Gas Inventories
Fri - Jan 18 - 09:55 - Michigan Sentiment
Charts of Interest: Tuesday and Thursday
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is
not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise).
We all need to think for ourselves when it comes to trading our own accounts. First, it is
the only way to really learn. Second, we are the only ones responsible for our decisions.
Think of these charts as food for further analysis. Before making a trade, it is important
to have a plan. Plan the trade and trade the plan. Among other things, this includes setting
a trigger level, a target area and a stop-loss level. It is also important to plan for three
possible price movements: advance, decline or sideways. Have a plan for all three scenarios
BEFORE making the trade. Consider possible holding times. And finally, look at overall market
conditions and sector/industry performance.
About the author:
Arthur Hill, CMT, is the Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focusing predominantly on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within the trend, and setting key price levels has made him an esteemed market technician. Arthur has written articles for numerous financial publications including Barrons and Stocks & Commodities Magazine. In addition to his Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, he holds an MBA from the Cass Business School at City University in London.
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