The indicator summary remains firmly bearish with nine of ten indicator groups now in the bearish camp. The Bullish Percent Index joined the bears as five of the nine sector BPIs moved below 50%. The AD Volume Lines clearly broke support to start downtrends this month. New lows expanded significantly in May and the cumulative Net New Highs lines turned down. The support breaks in the major index ETFs are holding.
- AD Lines: Bearish. The Nasdaq AD Line broke to a 52-week low and is clearly in bear mode. The NYSE AD Line broke below its March-April high to start a downtrend this week. The 125-day EMAs of Net Advances for both the Nasdaq and NYSE moved into negative territory.
- AD Volume Lines: Bearish. The NYSE and Nasdaq AD Volume Lines formed head-and-shoulders patterns from February to April and broke support in May. The 125-day EMAs of Net Advancing Volume for both the Nasdaq and NYSE moved into negative territory.
- Net New Highs: Bearish. The cumulative Net New Highs lines for the Nasdaq and NYSE moved below their 10-day EMAs. Net New Highs on the NYSE dipped to their lowest level since October. Nasdaq Net New Highs dipped to their lowest level since November.
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bearish. Five of the nine BPIs are below 50%. The Consumer Discretionary Bullish% Index ($BPDISC) moved just below 50% this week and the Technology Bullish% Index ($BPINFO) remains well below 50%. The defensive sector BPIs are holding up the best ($BPHEAL, $BPUTIL, $BPSTAP) and all three are above .
- VIX/VXN: Bearish. The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) and the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) broke above resistance that extended from February to April. Notice that inverse head-and-shoulders patterns formed and both broke neckline resistance. Rising volatility signals rising fear and this increases the propensity to sell.
- Trend-Structure: Bearish. DIA, IWM, MDY and SPY all broke support levels and these support breaks are holding as they consolidate just below. QQQ has been trending lower since early April.
- SPY Momentum: Bearish. 20-day RSI moved below 30 for the first time since August. MACD(5,35,5) moved to its lowest level since late November and the Aroon Oscillator moved below -50 for the first time since early December.
- Offensive Sector Performance: Bearish. The four offensive sectors (XLF, XLY, XLI, XLK) are showing relative weakness since early April, while the three defensive sectors (XLU, XLV, XLP) are showing relative strength.
- Nasdaq Performance: Bullish. The $COMPQ:$NYA ratio is holding up because the NY Composite ($NYA) is now leading the Nasdaq lower. $NYA can blame the industrials, finance and consumer discretionary sectors for relative weakness.
- Small-cap Performance: Bearish. The $RUT:$OEX ratio peaked in early February, broke below its November low in April and remains in a downtrend. Small-caps have been relatively weak for four months now.
- Breadth Charts (here) and Inter-market charts (here) have been updated.
This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in buying and selling pressure. With 10 indicator groups, the medium-term evidence is unlikely to change drastically overnight.
Previous turns include:
Negative on 18-May-11
Positive on 30-December-11
Negative on 16-December-11
Positive on 3-December-11
Negative on 23-November-11
Positive on 28-October-11
Negative on 5-August-11
Neutral on 29-Jul-11
Positive on 30-Jun-11
Negative on 17-Jun-11
Positive on 25-Mar-11
Negative on 18-Mar-11
Positive on 3-Sep-10
Negative on 13-Aug-10
Positive on 6-Aug-10
Negative on 24-Jun-10
Positive on 18-Jun-10
Negative on 11-Jun-10
Positive on 5-March-10
Negative on 5-Feb-10
Positive on 11-Sept-09
