There is no change in the indicator summary as the October breakouts continue to hold. Even though the stock market got shook pretty hard last week and this week, these breakouts are still holding. We cannot question a breakout unless there is a move back below broken resistance. For example, a move below 122 in SPY would question the breakout. This also applies to the AD Volume Lines, which are also holding their breakouts. I am concerned with weakness in the Nasdaq Net New Highs line this month and relative weakness in the Nasdaq the last two months.
- AD Lines: Neutral. The Nasdaq AD Line surged to resistance, but did not break its mid August high. It is currently consolidating just below resistance and a breakout would be bullish. The NYSE AD Line broke through resistance with the October surge, but has yet to clear its summer high.
- AD Volume Lines: Bullish. The NYSE and Nasdaq AD Volume Lines both broke resistance with the October surges. These breakouts are bullish as long as they hold.
- Net New Highs: Neutral. Net New Highs turned negative on the Nasdaq in November and this pushed the Cumulative Net New Highs Line below its 10-day EMA. NYSE Net New Highs remain positive and the Cumulative Net New Highs Line is above its 10-day EMA.
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. All nine sector BPIs are above 50% and in bull mode.
- VIX/VXN: Bullish. The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) and the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) both bounced in November as fear hit the markets. However, the trend since October remains down. I am marking resistance at the mid October and early November highs (37-38).
- Trend Structure: Bullish. DIA, IWM, MDY, QQQ and SPY all broke above resistance levels with big moves in October. These resistance breakouts were challenged with two sharp pullbacks the last two weeks, but are still holding and have yet to fold.
- SPY Momentum: Bullish. The momentum indicators are all in bull mode. RSI is holding above 50. MACD(5,35,5) is in positive territory. Aroon(20) is firmly in positive territory.
- Offensive Sector Performance: Bullish. The Finance SPDR shows relative weakness, but the Technology SPDR, Consumer Discretionary SPDR and Industrials SPDR are holding their resistance breakouts and have yet to breakdown.
- Nasdaq Performance: Bearish. The $COMPQ:$NYA ratio peaked in late September and moved lower the last two months. The Nasdaq is underperforming the NY Composite ($NYA).
- Small-cap Performance: Bullish. The $RUT:$OEX ratio surged back to its late August highs as small-caps led the market higher in October.
- Breadth Charts (here) and Inter-market charts (here) have been updated.
This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in buying and selling pressure. With 10 indicator groups, the medium-term evidence is unlikely to change drastically overnight.
Previous turns include:
Positive on 11-Sept-09
Negative on 5-Feb-10
Positive on 5-March-10
Negative on 11-Jun-10
Positive on 18-Jun-10
Negative on 24-Jun-10
Positive on 6-Aug-10
Negative on 13-Aug-10
Positive on 3-Sep-10
Negative on 18-Mar-11
Positive on 25-Mar-11
Negative on 17-Jun-11
Positive on 30-Jun-11
Neutral on 29-Jul-11
Negative on 5-August-11
Positive on 28-October-11
