Despite a sharp decline in stocks this week, the indicator summary remains firmly positive. Don't forget that the major index ETFs, most sector SPDRs, the AD Lines and the AD Volume Lines all recorded new 52-week highs just last week. Such highs occur in big uptrends, not big downtrends. It will take more than a week to put a negative dent in the indicator summary. The Volatility Indices were given a downgrade because both broke above their January highs. This signals a rise in the fear factor, which could lead to more selling pressure. See the About Page for more on Art's Chart and this indicator summary.
- AD Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq and NYSE AD Lines both hit new 52-week highs last week and remain in uptrends.
- AD Volume Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq and NYSE AD Volume Lines both hit new 52-week highs last week and established reaction lows in January to mark clear support levels.
- Net New Highs: Bullish. The Net New Highs ratio dipped to its lowest level since late January, but the Cumulative Net New Highs lines remain in clear uptrends and above their 10-day EMAs.
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. All Bullish Percent Indices are above 50%. The Basic Materials and Finance sector BPIs are the lowest (±67%).
- VIX/VXN: Neutral. The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) and the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) broke above their January highs, but remain below the 25. This level marks an important juncture for the fear factor. Follow through above 25 would be negative for stocks.
- Trend Structure: Bullish. DIA, QQQQ, IWM, SPY and MDY recorded new 52-week highs last this week and remain in uptrends overall.
- SPY Momentum: Bullish. MACD(5,35,5) and the Aroon Oscillator are still well above the zero line. RSI plunged to the 40-50 support zone. Another sharp decline would turn RSI bearish.
- Offensive Sector Performance: Bullish. Despite this week's sharp decline, the Consumer Discretionary, Technology, Industrials and Finance SPDRs all moved above their January highs last week and remain in uptrends overall.
- Nasdaq Performance: Neutral. The Nasdaq has been underperforming the NY Composite ($NYA) since early January, but the Nasdaq itself recorded a 52-week high last week. Split decision.
- Small-cap Performance: Neutral. The Russell 2000 (small-caps) recorded a 52-week high last week, but the Price Relative ($RUT:$OEX) formed a lower high to show some relative weakness in small-caps versus large-caps ($OEX). Split decision.
- Breadth Charts (here) and Inter-market charts (here) have been updated
This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in buying and selling pressure. With 10 indicator groups, the medium-term evidence is unlikely to change drastically overnight. Previous turns include: Positive on 11-Sept. Negative on 5-February. Positive on 5-March. Negative on 11-June. Positive on 18-June. Negative on 24-June. Positive on August 6. Negative on August 13. Positive on September 3.
