For the first time in many weeks, two indicator groups were downgraded in the indicator summary. Relative weakness in the Technology ETF (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) caused me to downgrade offensive sector performance from bullish to neutral. The Industrials SPDR (XLI) and Finance SPDR (XLF) are still holding up well. The second downgrade occurred because of relative weakness in small-caps. Despite weakness on Wednesday-Thursday, the breadth indicators remain in bull mode and the overall trends are still up for the major index ETFs. The bears are going to have to come up with more selling pressure to shift the balance. Please note that this indicator summary will not anticipate a top. Instead, it is more a trend following system that will turn negative when the bulk of the evidence turns bearish. You can read more on Art's Charts here. Indicator details can be found after the jump.
- AD Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq AD Line was hit hard this week, but remains in an uptrend overall. The NYSE AD Line held up much better and also remains in an uptrend overall.
- AD Volume Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq and NYSE AD Volume Lines were both hit hard this week, but remain in uptrends overall.
- Net New Highs: Bullish. Net New Highs for the Nasdaq and NYSE dropped sharply, but did not turn negative and the Cumulative Net New Highs lines remain above their 10-day EMAs.
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. All Bullish Percent Indices are above 50%.
- VIX/VXN: Bullish. The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) and the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) spiked higher on Wednesday, but did not break resistance and remain in downtrends overall.
- Trend Structure: Bullish. Before the Wednesday-Thursday pullback, DIA, QQQQ, IWM, SPY and MDY recorded new 52-week highs again this week.
- SPY Momentum: Bullish. MACD(5,35,5) remains in positive territory. RSI is above 50. The Aroon Oscillator is firmly in positive territory.
- Offensive Sector Performance: Neutral. The Technology ETF (XLK) has been lagging since early November and the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) has been lagging since late November, but the Industrials SPDR (XLI) and Finance SPDR (XLF) continue to show relative strength.
- Nasdaq Performance: Bullish. The $COMPQ:$NYA ratio remains in a clear uptrend as the Nasdaq outperforms the NY Composite ($NYA).
- Small-cap Performance: Neutral. The $RUT:$OEX ratio peaked in mid December and moved sharply lower in 2011. Small-caps are showing relative weakness this year.
- Breadth Charts (here) and Inter-market charts (here) have been updated
This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in balance of power (bull/bear) within the stock market. With 10 indicator groups, the medium-term evidence is unlikely to change drastically overnight. Previous turns include: Started on 11-Sept-09 as positive. Negative on 5-February-10. Positive on 5-March-10. Negative on 11-June-10. Positive on 18-June-10. Negative on 24-June-10. Positive on 6-August-10. Negative on 13-August-10. Positive on 3-September-10.
