Today marks three full months that the indicator summary has been positive. After some whipsaws in the summer, this table turned positive on September 3rd and remains positive. Some signs of weakness appeared in November, but these were erased with this week's surge and breakout. Small-caps and mid-caps are leading the way as the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) exceeded their November highs already. The finance sector also came to life this week with big breakouts in the Finance SPDR (XLF) and Regional Bank SPDR (KRE). It ain't over until it's over, as Yogi would say. The current rally could last another three weeks or another three months. I will simply wait for the evidence to turn bearish before considering this uptrend finished. See the About Page for details on the various features in Art's Charts.
- AD Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq AD Line rebounded to establish support from the mid October and mid November lows. The NYSE AD Line remains in a clear uptrend.
- AD Volume Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq and NYSE AD Volume Lines remain in uptrends with support from the mid November lows.
- Net New Highs: Bullish. Nasdaq and NYSE Net New Highs dipped into negative territory in mid November, but the Cumulative Net New Highs lines never turned lower and remain above their 10-day EMAs.
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. All Bullish Percent Indices are above 50%.
- VIX/VXN: Bullish. The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) and the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) broke above their November highs, but failed to hold these breakouts with a sharp decline this week. Falling and low volatility translates into less risk and this is positive for stocks.
- Trend Structure: Bullish. QQQQ, SPY and DIA are challenging their November highs. IWM and MDY already broke their November highs as small and mid-caps lead the way.
- SPY Momentum: Bullish. MACD(5,35,5) remains in positive territory. RSI bounced off the 40-50 support zone and is back above 50. The Aroon Oscillator moved into negative territory though and has yet to rebound. Two out three are bullish.
- Offensive Sector Performance: Bullish. The consumer discretionary and industrials sectors are very strong and leading the way. Technology dropped off a bit the last few weeks, but finance picked up significantly this week.
- Nasdaq Performance: Bullish. The $COMPQ:$NYA ratio moved to a new high in late November and remains in an uptrend.
- Small-cap Performance: Bullish. The $RUT:$OEX ratio also moved to a new high in late November and small-caps are showing relative strength.
- Breadth Charts (here) and Inter-market charts (here) have been updated
This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in buying and selling pressure. With 10 indicator groups, the medium-term evidence is unlikely to change drastically overnight. Previous turns include: Positive on 11-Sept. Negative on 5-February. Positive on 5-March. Negative on 11-June. Positive on 18-June. Negative on 24-June. Positive on August 6. Negative on August 13. Positive on September 3.
