The overall picture is still mixed, but bullish assessments of the volatility indices and Net New Highs pushed the indicator summary into positive territory for the first time since mid June. The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) and Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) continue to move lower and both broke their 200-day moving average this week. Nasdaq Net New Highs have been positive for two weeks, but continue to lag NYSE Net New Highs. Risk of whipsaw remains because a sharp decline from current levels could easily flip a few indicators back to the bears.
- AD Lines: Neutral. The NYSE AD Line broke above its June and April highs (bullish), but the Nasdaq AD Line remains below its June high (bearish).
- AD Volume Lines: Neutral. The Nasdaq AD Volume Line broke above its June high (bullish), but the Nasdaq AD Volume Line remains below its June high (bearish).
- Net New Highs: Bullish. Nasdaq Net New Highs has yet to break the early May high (~100), but the cumulative Net New Highs line turned up (bullish). NYSE Net New Highs broke above 100 and the cumulative Net New Highs line clearly turned up (bullish).
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. The majority of BPIs are above 50%. The finance sector and Nasdaq are right at 50%. Only the healthcare sector and the consumer discretionary sector have BPIs below 50%.
- Sentiment: Bullish. The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) and Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) have been trending lower since mid May and broke below their 200-day moving averages.
- Trend Structure: Neutral. On a closing basis, the Dow SPDR (DIA) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) exceeded their June highs, but the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) have yet to exceed these highs.
- SPY Momentum: Bullish. MACD(5,35,5) and Aroon moved into positive territory last week and RSI broke above 60.
- Offensive Sector Performance: Neutral. The finance and consumer discretionary sectors are lagging, while the technology and industrials sectors are leading.
- Nasdaq Performance: Bearish. The $COMPQ:$NYA ratio has been moving lower since early June.
- Small-cap Performance: Bearish. The $RUT:$OEX ratio has been moving lower since April.
- Breadth Charts have been updated (click here)
About the author:
Arthur Hill, CMT, is the Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focusing predominantly on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within the trend, and setting key price levels has made him an esteemed market technician. Arthur has written articles for numerous financial publications including Barrons and Stocks & Commodities Magazine. In addition to his Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, he holds an MBA from the Cass Business School at City University in London.
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