It all depends on where we set key resistance. If the mid July highs marked key resistance, then this indicator summary would be in bull mode. If the mid June highs mark key resistance, then a number of indicators and ETFs remain short of trend changing breakouts. Because this is a medium-term assessment, I am going with the June highs for key resistance. So far, the Nasdaq AD Line, the Nasdaq and NYSE AD Volume Lines, the major index ETFs, the Financials SPDR, Consumer Discretionary SPDR and Technology SPDR have yet to break above their June highs. These highs mark resistance that needs to be broke for an official trend change. Indicator details can be found after the jump.
- AD Lines: Neutral. The NYSE AD Line broke above its June high (bullish), but the Nasdaq AD Line remains below its June high (bearish).
- AD Volume Lines: Bearish. The Nasdaq and NYSE AD Volume Lines have yet to break above their June highs. Both are close and another surge would likely do the trick.
- Net New Highs: Neutral. Nasdaq Net New Highs has yet to break the early May high (~100) and the cumulative Net New Highs line is trending lower (bearish). NYSE Net New Highs broke above 100 and the cumulative Net New Highs line clearly turned up (bullish).
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. The majority of BPIs are above 50%. BPIs for the Nasdaq, the healthcare sector and the consumer discretionary sector are below 50%.
- Sentiment: Neutral. The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) and Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) have been trending lower since mid May, but remain well above their April lows and are finding support near their June lows.
- Trend Structure: Neutral. The major index ETFs broke above the trendlines extending down from the April-May highs, but have yet to break above the June high.
- SPY Momentum: Bullish. MACD(5,35,5) and Aroon moved into positive territory last week and RSI broke above 60.
- Offensive Sector Performance: Neutral. The finance and consumer discretionary sectors are lagging, while the technology and industrials sectors are leading.
- Nasdaq Performance: Bearish. The $COMPQ:$NYA ratio has been moving lower since early June.
- Small-cap Performance: Bearish. The $RUT:$OEX ratio has been moving lower since April.
- Breadth Charts have been updated (click here)
About the author:
Arthur Hill, CMT, is the Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focusing predominantly on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within the trend, and setting key price levels has made him an esteemed market technician. Arthur has written articles for numerous financial publications including Barrons and Stocks & Commodities Magazine. In addition to his Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, he holds an MBA from the Cass Business School at City University in London.
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