Art's Charts

Medium-Term Evidence Remains Bullish

Arthur Hill

Arthur Hill

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

There is no change in the Stock Market Summary this week. The bulk of the evidence turned bullish again on March 5th and remains bullish. All 10 indicators are in bull mode. The only potential negative is the frothiness of the current advance. Nasdaq outperformance surged this month and small-cap outperformance surged this week. Basically, we could be seeing a big surge in speculative activity. In addition, the consumer discretionary is up around 8% in April. It is a real stampede out there with no signs of weakness to be found. 

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Details after the jump......

  • AD Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq and NYSE AD Lines hit new 52-week highs this week.
  • AD Volume Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq and NYSE AD Volume Lines remain in uptrends overall, but Net Advancing Volume was weak over the last four days. 
  • Net New Highs: Bullish. The Cumulative Net New Highs Lines for the NYSE and Nasdaq remain in uptrends and above their 10-day SMAs. 
  • Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. All major index and sector BPI's are above 50%.
  • Fear Index: Bullish. The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) and Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) hit new lows last week. 
  • Trend Structure: Bullish. The Russell 2000 ETF, Nasdaq 100 ETF, S&P 400 MidCap ETF, S&P 500 ETF and Dow SPDR (DIA) hit new 52-week highs over the last two weeks.  
  • SPY Momentum: Bullish. But overbought. The Aroon Oscillator is above +50. MACD (5,35,5) is near its October levels. RSI has been near 70 since March 9th.   
  • Offensive Sector Performance: Bullish. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), Financials SPDR (XLF), Technology SPDR (XLK) and Industrials SPDR (XLI) all hit new 52-week highs over the last two weeks.
  • Nasdaq Performance: Bullish. The Nasdaq has been leading the NY Composite since early February. 
  • Small-caps Performance: Bullish. Small-caps and mid-caps outperformed large-caps since early February. 
  • Breadth Charts have been updated (click here)
This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in buying and selling pressure. With 10 indicator groups, the medium-term evidence is unlikely to change drastically overnight. The evidence was bullish from early September until late January. The Jan-Feb decline was enough to turn the evidence bearish on February 5th, but this decline turned out to be a correction and the evidence turned bullish again on March 5th. It is not immune to whipsaws.
Arthur Hill
About the author: , CMT, is the Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focusing predominantly on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within the trend, and setting key price levels has made him an esteemed market technician. Arthur has written articles for numerous financial publications including Barrons and Stocks & Commodities Magazine. In addition to his Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, he holds an MBA from the Cass Business School at City University in London. Learn More
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